This was good. You should have her one once or twice a year to give updates. I think I may need to listen to it again though because I’ve heard in other places that we need more supply to bring prices down and that local governments need to change zoning laws and such. But it sounds like she’s saying there is plenty of supply and houses are sitting vacant. So I think I missed what the real cause of high prices is and what the solution is. Was it really all the investors and people doing Air BnBs?
We recently moved out of the Austin area and our agent said that area has a reckoning coming because prices went up way too high there. But this is probably the case for much of the country.
Also Meghan, at the end she mentioned Neil Howe and his idea of the Fourth Turning. You gotta get him on. I think you could have a good conversation with him about historical and generational cycles. (And generational qualities and archetypes.) He seems to get more respect from people in economics than he does from history people, but he’s not a quack like other historians in the news of late. Anyway, I think I’ve suggested him before, but there it is again.
If you have Howe on, also have Peter Turchin. Turchin has a similar thesis but it's based on more empirical data like wealth inequality and life expectancy.
I read both their books and Turchin's was more convincing to me (though he also seems a bit full of himself).
I would also love to hear you interview Melody every 6-9 months because the market is so volatile.
Derek took the words from my mouth: I am by no means an expert on the economics of housing. But almost EVERY single libertarian/center right analysis of the housing problem I've read the last few years points to a severe inventory shortage, spurred in large part by restrictive zoning laws. Developers simply are prohibited by law from building apartments, townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, accessory dwellings etc. etc.
After listening to Melody, my hunch is that the zoning problem is a coastal/Rust Belt issue, particularly in desirable inner-ring suburbs with public transit into major cities. I live on the East Coast but in far-flung exurbs where every week it seems a former cornfield is being turned into townhouses. Clearly the zoning laws in these car-dependent areas are more "liberal" in terms of allowing housing other than single-family on a big lot. (Even high-end apartments are being built). Melody spoke a lot about an inventory glut in the Sun Belt - I would be curious to hear her analysis of the Northeast/Rust Belt.
Thank you *so* much for this. It makes me feel a lot less crazy for wondering how the hell any of this housing market is sustainable... (Also, is it just me or does anyone else wonder who the Boomers are going to sell all their properties to?? Who can afford to buy them? And yes, generational wealth is a thing, but I don’t actually think most of the younger generation would want their parents’ houses anyway, so who’s going to take them off their hands?) I could listen to Melody for hours… please do invite her back if you feel so inclined and thanks for mixing it up topic-wise too!
This was good. You should have her one once or twice a year to give updates. I think I may need to listen to it again though because I’ve heard in other places that we need more supply to bring prices down and that local governments need to change zoning laws and such. But it sounds like she’s saying there is plenty of supply and houses are sitting vacant. So I think I missed what the real cause of high prices is and what the solution is. Was it really all the investors and people doing Air BnBs?
We recently moved out of the Austin area and our agent said that area has a reckoning coming because prices went up way too high there. But this is probably the case for much of the country.
Also Meghan, at the end she mentioned Neil Howe and his idea of the Fourth Turning. You gotta get him on. I think you could have a good conversation with him about historical and generational cycles. (And generational qualities and archetypes.) He seems to get more respect from people in economics than he does from history people, but he’s not a quack like other historians in the news of late. Anyway, I think I’ve suggested him before, but there it is again.
Yes, I'd love to have Neil Howe on to talk about the Fourth Turning. I just need to make sure I understand it first!
If you have Howe on, also have Peter Turchin. Turchin has a similar thesis but it's based on more empirical data like wealth inequality and life expectancy.
I read both their books and Turchin's was more convincing to me (though he also seems a bit full of himself).
Dearest Meghan,
I would also love to hear you interview Melody every 6-9 months because the market is so volatile.
Derek took the words from my mouth: I am by no means an expert on the economics of housing. But almost EVERY single libertarian/center right analysis of the housing problem I've read the last few years points to a severe inventory shortage, spurred in large part by restrictive zoning laws. Developers simply are prohibited by law from building apartments, townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, accessory dwellings etc. etc.
After listening to Melody, my hunch is that the zoning problem is a coastal/Rust Belt issue, particularly in desirable inner-ring suburbs with public transit into major cities. I live on the East Coast but in far-flung exurbs where every week it seems a former cornfield is being turned into townhouses. Clearly the zoning laws in these car-dependent areas are more "liberal" in terms of allowing housing other than single-family on a big lot. (Even high-end apartments are being built). Melody spoke a lot about an inventory glut in the Sun Belt - I would be curious to hear her analysis of the Northeast/Rust Belt.
Thank you *so* much for this. It makes me feel a lot less crazy for wondering how the hell any of this housing market is sustainable... (Also, is it just me or does anyone else wonder who the Boomers are going to sell all their properties to?? Who can afford to buy them? And yes, generational wealth is a thing, but I don’t actually think most of the younger generation would want their parents’ houses anyway, so who’s going to take them off their hands?) I could listen to Melody for hours… please do invite her back if you feel so inclined and thanks for mixing it up topic-wise too!
This was a great episode, really interesting.
I haven't finished this, but she is great! I love the detail. Thanks for having her on.